All eyes will be on Senators-elect Benigno “Bam” Aquino III and Francis “Kiko” Pangilinan when the Senate tries impeached Vice President Sara Duterte over a string of charges arising from her alleged misuse of government funds.

The re-entry of Aquino and Pangilinan will alter the dynamics in the 24-member chamber that will need the votes of 16 senators to convict Duterte, or 9 to acquit her. They are sure to backstop the lone opposition member, Sen. Risa Hontiveros.

“They are expected to be more circumspect or to be more critical of the process that will transpire and, as well, to have more appreciation of the facts,” Kontra Daya convenor Danilo Arao told CoverStory.ph by phone.

In a high-stakes impeachment trial such as Duterte’s, where “vote-buying” or “horse-trading” could happen, it’s hard to say how the trial would end, according to Arao.

“Bam and Kiko could also be decisive especially in a situation where, the impeachment trial being a numbers game, you can’t tell for sure whether there will be an acquittal or a conviction,” he said, adding:

“Their votes can be decisive in the sense that they might end up as the swing votes. But of course, these are just floated possibilities.”

In a survey-defying, come-from-behind win in the tight senatorial race in the May 12 midterm elections, Aquino landed second with 20.9 million votes and Pangilinan fifth with 15.3 million votes.

They had languished outside the “Magic 12” in all pre-election surveys.

But between the two former colleagues, Aquino will be taking part in the trial with possible baggage—the endorsement of the religious bloc Iglesia ni Cristo (INC), which held a “peace rally” in January to convey its opposition to Duterte’s impeachment. He was among the eight senatorial candidates endorsed by the 3-million-strong INC.

“There is more pressure on Aquino to prove his naysayers wrong,” Arao said.

‘Big improvement’

The big win of Aquino and Pangilinan in the midterms was a “big improvement” for the Senate opposition, according to Ma. Ela Atienza, a political science professor at the University of the Philippines Diliman.

“Definitely, Senator Risa will have allies who are consistent, calling for accountability, focusing on the marginalized sector,” Atienza said in an interview via Zoom.

But while some expect a judgment along political lines in the impeachment trial, it’s hard to tell how the senators will vote because they will deal with a public who will try to sway them one way or the other, she said.

“The thing about impeachment is that it’s public. The people are involved—they lobby, they try to persuade the senators to vote in accordance with what seems to be a public sentiment,” Atienza said.

“And senators care so much about how they are perceived publicly because they have intentions of running for higher public office,” she added, referring to the 2028 presidential election.

In the end, Atienza said, it will depend on “how they will look at the evidence.”

Duterte is accused of bribery, corruption, and culpable violation of the Constitution in connection with the alleged misuse of some P612 million in confidential funds at the Office of the Vice President and the Department of Education, which she headed from 2022 to 2024.

The articles of impeachment against her are expected to be formally presented to the Senate on June 2, and the trial is slated to begin on July 30.

Winning factors

Atienza cited certain factors that propelled Aquino and Pangilinan to the top 5 from their poor 16th to 17th rankings in the pre-election surveys. She said the flurry of activities in the last two weeks of the campaign—from securing endorsements from local officials to sharing sample ballots with the candidates’ names on them on social media—may have spelled the difference.

Arao agreed with this observation. “The key factor would be the sweep that they did,” he said. “In other words, you don’t take credit away from their campaign team. They really knew what to do, toward the tail end of the campaign.”

“So,” Atienza said, “the latest survey results notwithstanding, they were able to make adjustments.”

The endorsements of other senators were also crucial, she said.

Aquino and Pangilinan may have also benefited from the “disunity” of the Marcos-Duterte “UniTeam,” Atienza added. “If [the people] were voting for only 10, say in the [administration’s] Alyansa slate, it was easier to squeeze the two in.”

During the campaign, Sen. Imee Marcos. President Ferdinand Marcos Jr.’s elder sister, bolted the administration’s Alyansa para sa Bagong Pilipinas, and together with administration candidate Camille Villar, sought the endorsement of the Vice President.

In the end, Villar ranked 10th with 13.6 million votes and Marcos 12th with 13.3 million votes.

“And definitely, the Aquino magic is still there. That’s an important factor,” Atienza said, referring to the endorsements of the siblings of the late former president Benigno “Noynoy” Aquino III for Bam Aquino, their cousin.

Arao said the turnout of young voters may also have been a huge factor in the comeback bid of Aquino and Pangilinan.

“We don’t take away the power of the youth vote because whether we like it or not, it’s the youth that would have the energy and the patience to go to the polling precincts despite the high heat index, despite the long lines,” Arao said.

Without any exit polls to determine how the population voted, Atienza refused to make a “sweeping generalization” that the youth—meaning the millennials and Gen Zs—sent Aquino and Pangilinan back to the Senate.

“There were many who opposed the fight between families, and that’s good,” she said. “But still there were those who voted for ‘trapos’ (traditional politicians) and those who believed in patronage politics.”

(Sagip party list Rep. Rodante Marcoleta also pole-vaulted from out of nowhere to land No. 6 behind Pangilinan, benefiting from the endorsements of the INC and gubernatorial candidates courting the so-called INC votes.)

Arao observed that more than the so-called “pink vote,” Aquino and Pangilinan were also privileged to have a “respectable war chest” for their respective candidacies. “It may not be as much as the administration candidates’, but it’s more than enough for them to wage a decent national campaign,” he said.

And with Akbayan assured of three seats in the House of Representatives after topping the party list race, “it’s a win for the genuine opposition,” Atienza said.
(Activist lawyers Chel Diokno of Akbayan and Leila de Lima of ML or Mamamayang Liberal, both newly proclaimed representatives-elect, have been tapped to be part of the House prosecution panel at Duterte’s impeachment trial.)

Survey methodologies

Arao said the Senate vote turnout should prompt survey firms like Pulse Asia and Social Weather Stations to refine their methodologies.

For instance, he said, the most basic question ‘Who would you vote for if the elections were held today?’ may be rephrased as ‘Who would you vote for on May 12?’

“This is to ensure that more people will get an idea as to what kind of voter base you have at the moment,” Arao said. “Of course, the age group may have to be also adjusted so that you can get more Gen Z or millennial votes to make it more representative of the youth vote.”

It is also high time survey firms, the academe and the media conducted survey literacy, Arao said, noting that there are “many ways in which surveys can be weaponized.”

“It may be necessary for other news organizations to step up and provide the necessary logistical and financial requirements for an exit poll,” he said.

Read more: Members of the ‘Magic 12’ set the tone of the Senate in the 20th Congress