Barring any more season-ending injuries and based on the first elimination round performance, my prediction for the UAAP Season 88 men’s basketball contenders for the final four slots is as follows (not in any order): University of Santo Tomas, National University, University of the Philippines, Ateneo de Manila University and De La Salle University. For the finals, my fearless forecast is it will either be UST vs NU or UP vs UST/NU.

The three other schools in the country’s premier collegiate league, the Universities Athletic Association of the Philippines—Far Eastern University, Adamson University and University of the East—have to drastically improve their performance in the second elimination round or remain out of the final four picture.

The challenge in the interim is for UST and NU to retain consistency at a high level. For UP, it will be to peak at the right time; for Ateneo, it will be to arrest its slide and avoid end-game collapses (literally getting gassed-out in triple overtime against UST, in which UST found a third wind). For depleted La Salle, it will be to keep on hammering out clutch wins.

The statistical picture (selective, written from the point of view of a UP fan) is as follows:

Among the top five teams—NU, UST, UP, Ateneo and La Salle—there is no clearly dominant team despite NU’s leading the first elimination round 6-1 win-loss record. If UP shot just slightly better, it could be the one holding the 6-1 record. Well, duh, is that not obvious? Well, no.

UP’s biggest area for improvement is in field goal shooting efficiency. It had an average effective field goal percentage of 39% in three first elimination round losses (to UST, Adamson and La Salle). In the four games UP won (against UE, NU, Ateneo, FEU), its EFG% was an average of 51%. When UP shoots well, it wins. But two of the three games it lost were because of last-minute clutch shots by the opposing teams. In other words, UP could have won those games as well, and be the one with the 6-1 record.

UP’s other statistical figures are similarly murky and mixed, which speaks of the high quality of the opposition and, therefore, how close the final scores are.

In assist to turnover ratios, UP only had two games out of seven with positive ratios (which it won). Two other games it also won despite negative assist to turnover ratios. Two of the three games it lost had negative ratios and the third (against UST) had a neutral ratio. Thus, in general, UP was turning over the ball more than it was making assists. But, in two negative ratio instances, it still won.

Rebounding also paints a poor picture for UP. The state university was decisively outrebounded in five out of seven games, was even in one (against Ateneo) and was better in only one game, which was against the league whipping boy, UE.

The league’s monster rebounders, Collins Akowe of UST and Mike Phillips of La Salle, are hard to match, but they can be neutralized, as seen in UST’s loss to NU and La Salle’s loss to UST.

UP’s fast breaks are deadly and its 3-point shooting is hot, outperforming almost all opposing teams in these departments, both in its winning and losing games. UP’s speedy guards Harold Alarcon, Gerry Abadiano and Terrence Fortea are run and gun specialists, among other shooters in the team. It employs various zone defense configurations to counter deficiencies in man-to-man matchups (e.g., against Akowe and Phillips) and to prevent incursions into the paint. But UP has poor free throw shooting, an area which often translates to winning margins in closely-fought contests.

The murkiness carries over to the 17 basketball statistical areas (excluding total team score) recorded in the UAAP website. In two out of seven games, UP was deficient in overall statistical performance. In both of these games (against UST and La Salle), it lost. In three won games (against UE, NU and Ateneo), UP led in overall statistical performance. In one game, against Adamson, UP led in statistical performance but lost narrowly by three points; and in the other remaining game, against FEU, the UP Fighting Maroons were slightly behind in overall performance but won narrowly, by a similar three points.

The first elimination round standings reflect a distinct upper tier of top five teams but the three lower ones—Adamson, FEU and UE—are all perfectly capable of spoiling the party for any of the leaders. All these teams have never-say-die players, among whom the standouts are Cedrick Manzano, AJ Fransman and Ray Allen Torres of Adamson; Jorick Bautista, Janrey Pasaol and Mohamed Konateh of FEU; and John Abate, Wello Lingolingo and Precious Momowei of UE.

My hoped-for finalists are my alma mater UP and my sentimental favorite Ateneo (I spent nine years at XU-Ateneo de Cagayan, and my son got his economics degree from Ateneo de Manila).

One can always count on UP (in tandem with La Salle) to keep sports relevant, injecting a strong anti-corruption stance through their half-time pep squads’ performance, a call that was joined and magnified by the entire arena during the final game of the first elimination round.

But this UAAP Season 88, UST and NU are as deserving as any to make it to the finals and ultimately win the much-coveted men’s basketball championship.