The first elimination round of the University Athletic Association of the Philippines (UAAP) Season 89 is over, and it’s time to take stock of the University of the Philippines (UP) men’s basketball team’s performance thus far relative to the other schools in the UAAP.
Except for Ateneo de Manila University, De La Salle University and University of the East (UE), the other five teams at the top seem pretty balanced. UP, which owns a 5–2 win-loss record just like National University (NU), is closely followed by Far Eastern University (FEU), University of Santo Tomas (UST) and Adamson University, who all have 4–3 records. Bringing up the rear are Ateneo and defending champion La Salle, both at 3–4. Dead last is UE at 0–7.
The first five teams are at the win median (4 or 57.2%) or better, while the last three failed to make the grade.
I will go by the overall metric of scoring efficiency and several of its key components: assist-to-turnover ratio, rebounds, true shooting percentage, and effective field goal percentage.
Overall scoring efficiency measures the “positives” or the sum of points, rebounds, assists, steals and blocks minus the “negatives” of missed field goal attempts, missed free throws and turnovers, averaged over the number of games played.
The most efficient are NU with 93.6 and La Salle with 92.3. La Salle’s high efficiency is why, despite its low ranking in the first round, it cannot be counted out of the Final Four picture. Analysts point to La Salle’s standing after Round 1 of last year’s Season 88, which also was 3–4—but subsequently the Green Archers shot and clawed their way up to contention and eventually won the championship.
Next are UP and UST with similar efficiency scores of 90.6, and FEU is close with 90.3. Ateneo is a far 82.4, and farther still is Adamson with 74.9. The lowest-ranked UE is the least efficient with 71.6.
Ateneo lacks continuity and lacks talent. Just like La Salle, it had a win-loss record of 3–4 after the first round of Season 88. But it went the opposite direction of La Salle and may do so again this year.
Surprisingly, Adamson with its competitive 4–3 win-loss record is the second least efficient, due mainly to very low cumulative scoring with 476 points in the first seven games of the season. Adamson focuses on defense, limiting its opponents (and itself) to low scores, compared to La Salle’s league-leading 573 total points, which make it Season 89’s best offensive team so far.
The teams with the best assist-to-turnover ratios are FEU (1.34), La Salle (1.31), NU (1.22), and Adamson (1.17). Middling are UST (1.01) and UP (0.98). The lowest are UE (0.95) and Ateneo (0.91). A high number indicates better decision-making, better ball-handling ability, and fewer errors. As such, they indicate better team cohesion and teamwork and less individual play.
Cold starts are UP’s bane, but it perversely seems to thrive on furious fightbacks to showcase its grit and talent. Capitalizing on its height and depth, UP seems more able to pull a game out of the fire when it employs man-to-man matchups in attempting to overhaul early deficits and gaining the upper hand—though not always successfully, as in the case of the games against NU and FEU when it fell behind by a large margin early on and could not fully close the gap no matter what it did.
The more rebounds, the greater the chance of winning the game. Rebounds mean more ball possessions and more scoring opportunities.
In rebounding, UP only ranks third, with 325 over seven games. The team with the most rebounds is UST (340), which enjoys having in its roster the league’s monster rebounder, the do-it-all Collins Akowe. Also ahead of UP in rebounds are NU and FEU, each having 329. In decreasing order after UP are Ateneo (298), La Salle (284), Adamson (270), and UE (237).
Rebounding was where UP had to make a key adjustment after two straight losses to NU and FEU. Francis Nnoruka was replaced with Dikachi Ududo at the center position. The improved rebounding plus Ududo’s other contributions in defense and scoring helped UP finish strong by winning its last three assignments in the first round.
Rebounds are hotly contested, with opposing players often ending up on the floor in wrestling matches for the ball.
True shooting percentage, which counts both field goals and free throws, is where UP has a slight edge. It had a higher true shooting percentage in four of the seven games it played in the first round, with two games (against UST and Ateneo) at the elite level of 59.9% and 60.3%, respectively.
Layups are stymied and the ball swatted away by a slew of big, high-leaping defenders, and mid-range shots are often contested and made with the barest of openings.
Evenly matched at the middle and upper win-loss tiers, it is crowded at the top. The competition can only get tougher as La Salle seeks to repeat history and Ateneo tries to show it belongs among the big boys. Even perpetual cellar-dweller UE is capable of pulling off a couple of surprises, as it almost did against unfocused UP.
What are UP’s prospects to take home the plum this year instead of being an also-ran?
Aside from the desire to win, it boils down to the biggest weapon of modern basketball: the three-point shot, where size and strength matter not as much as skill and confidence. Effective field goal percentage, which adjusts for the value of made three-pointers, could be the decider. Out of seven games, UP had five with higher three-point shot percentages than the opposing team.
Sharpest shooter wins. Hopefully, it will be the UP Fighting Maroons. CS
